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Binary Compression Near Extremes

As probability prices approach 0% or 100%:
  • Marginal price movement becomes asymmetrical
  • Small probability changes can have outsized impact
  • Liquidity naturally thins near extremes
Ascend handles this by:
  • Applying consistent tick sizing
  • Maintaining symmetric LONG / SHORT mechanics
  • Preserving deterministic PnL behavior

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Probability Drift Without Resolution

Some probability markets may drift for extended periods without ever reaching resolution. Examples:
  • Long-term macro expectations
  • Ongoing policy speculation
  • Persistent sentiment indicators
Behavior:
  • Markets remain continuously tradable
  • Funding maintains alignment with external signals
  • No forced settlement occurs
This enables prediction markets to function as ongoing probability instruments, not one-off bets.

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Sudden Truth Revelation

Some events resolve instantaneously and unambiguously. Examples:
  • Official results released
  • Market-moving announcements
Behavior:
  • Index Price updates immediately
  • Mark Price converges deterministically
  • Settlement proceeds according to predefined rules
No discretionary delay is introduced.

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Contrarian Liquidity Vacuums

At high confidence levels, few traders may be willing to take the opposing side. Behavior:
  • Spreads widen naturally
  • Funding incentives increase
  • Liquidity reflects true market conviction
Markets remain functional without artificial liquidity injection.

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Oracle Irregularities

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Stale Oracle Data

If one or more oracle sources stop updating:
  • Stale inputs are excluded from Index Price calculation
  • Remaining valid sources continue to contribute
  • Mark Price smoothing limits sudden jumps
If insufficient valid sources remain, the market may enter a restricted state until updates resume.

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Conflicting Oracle Inputs

If oracle inputs diverge beyond acceptable bounds:
  • Outlier prices are ignored according to predefined thresholds
  • Weighted aggregation continues using valid inputs
  • The Mark Price clamp limits divergence
This prevents a single oracle from dominating price formation.

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