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On Ascend, you do not trade ownership of an asset or a fixed event contract. You take positions on how a probability will move over time. This means you can express conviction in either direction:
LONG if you believe the probability will increase
SHORT if you believe the probability will decrease
Leverage allows you to scale exposure relative to posted margin, amplifying gains and losses according to market rules.

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LONG Positions

A LONG position expresses the view that a probability will increase.

Example: LONG 55% → 62%

You enter LONG at 55%. The probability rises to 62%. You profit from the 7 point move.

Example: LONG 48% → 51%

You enter LONG at 48%. The probability rises to 51%. You profit from the 3 point move.
If the probability rises, a LONG position gains. If the probability falls, a LONG position loses.

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SHORT Positions

A SHORT position expresses the view that a probability will decrease.

Example: SHORT 68% → 60%

You enter SHORT at 68%. The probability falls to 60%. You profit from the 8 point move.

Example: SHORT 52% → 45%

You enter SHORT at 52%. The probability falls to 45%. You profit from the 7 point move.
If the probability falls, a SHORT position gains. If the probability rises, a SHORT position loses.

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Probability Movement, Not Event Resolution

PnL on Ascend is driven by changes in probability prices, not solely by final outcome resolution. This is a key difference from traditional prediction markets where you bet and wait.
You do not have to hold until the event resolves. If the probability moves in your favor, you can close and take profit. If it moves against you, you can cut losses.
As new information arrives, probabilities shift. You can trade these shifts in real time, capturing value from how probabilities evolve.
Traditional prediction markets lock you in. On Ascend, you can adjust position size, add margin, or exit entirely as conditions change.
Probability prices are treated as tradable signals, not static forecasts.

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Symmetric Exposure

LONG and SHORT positions on Ascend are structurally symmetric.
PropertyLONGSHORT
Profits whenProbability risesProbability falls
Loses whenProbability fallsProbability rises
Margin rulesSameSame
Risk frameworkSameSame
Mark price referenceSameSame
This ensures fair and consistent exposure regardless of direction. No side has a structural advantage.

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How Leverage Applies

Leverage on Ascend scales exposure to probability movement, not to asset ownership.
1

Margin determines capital at risk

The margin you post is the capital backing your position. This is the maximum you can lose on the trade.
2

Leverage determines sensitivity

Higher leverage means a smaller probability move creates a larger PnL impact. A 2 point move at 10x leverage has 10 times the effect of a 2 point move at 1x.
3

PnL scales with both

Your profit or loss depends on: probability movement, position size, and leverage. A small change in probability can result in meaningful PnL when leverage is applied.
Leverage operates within explicit market-defined limits to ensure consistent risk behavior.

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Why This Matters

Leveraged LONG and SHORT trading on probabilities enables:
Active participation in prediction markets, not passive betting
Scalable expression of conviction through leverage
Continuous price discovery around changing probabilities
This is the core mechanic that transforms prediction markets into perpetual trading venues.

Next: PnL & Leverage Basics

Understand how PnL is calculated and how leverage affects your positions