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On Ascend, you profit or lose based on how the probability price moves relative to your entry price. This is scaled by your position size and leverage.
PnL updates continuously as prices change. You do not have to wait for event resolution to see gains or losses.

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The PnL Formula

Unrealized PnL is calculated using four inputs:
InputWhat It Means
Entry PriceThe probability price when you opened the position
Mark PriceThe current probability price used for valuation
Position SizeHow large your position is
Direction+1 for LONG, -1 for SHORT
The formula: 
Unrealized PnL = Direction × Position Size × (Mark Price − Entry Price)
This applies symmetrically to LONG and SHORT positions.

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PnL Examples

You open LONG at 50% with position size 1,000 USDC notional.Probability rises to 58%.
PnL = +1 × 1,000 × (0.58 − 0.50)
    = +1 × 1,000 × 0.08
    = +80 USDC
You are up 80 USDC.
You open LONG at 50% with position size 1,000 USDC notional.Probability falls to 44%.
PnL = +1 × 1,000 × (0.44 − 0.50)
    = +1 × 1,000 × (−0.06)
    = −60 USDC
You are down 60 USDC.
You open SHORT at 65% with position size 1,000 USDC notional.Probability falls to 58%.
PnL = −1 × 1,000 × (0.58 − 0.65)
    = −1 × 1,000 × (−0.07)
    = +70 USDC
You are up 70 USDC.
You open SHORT at 65% with position size 1,000 USDC notional.Probability rises to 72%.
PnL = −1 × 1,000 × (0.72 − 0.65)
    = −1 × 1,000 × 0.07
    = −70 USDC
You are down 70 USDC.

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How Leverage Works

Leverage allows you to control a larger position with less capital. The relationship between margin and position size: 
Initial Margin = Position Notional / Leverage
Or flipped: 
Position Notional = Initial Margin × Leverage

1x Leverage

100 USDC margin controls 100 USDC notional. A 10% probability move means 10 USDC PnL.

10x Leverage

100 USDC margin controls 1,000 USDC notional. A 10% probability move means 100 USDC PnL.
Higher leverage increases sensitivity to probability movement. The same price change creates a larger PnL impact.

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Leverage Example

You have 100 USDC and want to go LONG at 50%.
Position notional: 100 × 5 = 500 USDCProbability rises from 50% to 55% (5 point move).
PnL = 500 × 0.05 = +25 USDC
Return on margin: 25%
The same 5 point move produces 25, 50, or 100 USDC depending on leverage. This works in both directions. Losses scale the same way.

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Leverage Cuts Both Ways

Higher leverage amplifies losses just as it amplifies gains.
Leverage5 Point Gain5 Point Loss
5x+25 USDC-25 USDC
10x+50 USDC-50 USDC
20x+100 USDC-100 USDC
With 20x leverage, a 5 point move against you wipes your entire 100 USDC margin. Leverage operates within explicit market-defined limits to ensure consistent risk behavior.

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Mark-to-Market

Positions are continuously marked to the mark price. This means:
PnL updates in real time as probabilities move
Your equity (margin + unrealized PnL) changes constantly
Risk checks run against current mark price, not entry price
You always know where you stand. No waiting for settlement to see your position value.

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Position Lifecycle

A position on Ascend follows a clear lifecycle:
1

Open

You open a LONG or SHORT position with defined margin and leverage.
2

Update

As probability prices change, PnL and risk metrics update in real time.
3

Manage

You may increase, reduce, or partially close the position at any time within market rules.
4

Close

The position is closed voluntarily by you or through system-defined processes like liquidation or settlement.
Each stage follows deterministic mechanics governed by market parameters.

Next: Perpetual Market Structure

Learn how perpetual markets work without expiry