> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.ascend.market/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# Outcome Probabilities

> What an outcome probability represents and how to read 0–100% pricing

On Ascend, every market is priced as a probability between 0% and 100%.

This probability represents the market's collective assessment of how likely something is to happen. It is not an opinion. It is not a prediction from a single source. It is the aggregated result of continuous trading activity across all participants.

When you see a price of 62%, it means the market currently assigns a 62% likelihood to that outcome. When you see 35%, the market thinks it is less likely. When you see 88%, the market thinks it is highly probable.

You are not buying or selling an asset, you are taking a position on whether the probability of a specific outcome will move up or down.

***

## Reading 0–100% Prices

The percentage scale is intuitive:

<CardGroup cols={3}>
  <Card title="0%" icon="circle-xmark">
    The market considers this outcome impossible.
  </Card>

  <Card title="50%" icon="scale-balanced">
    The market is evenly split. Could go either way.
  </Card>

  <Card title="100%" icon="circle-check">
    The market considers this outcome certain.
  </Card>
</CardGroup>

Most prices sit somewhere in between. A few examples:

| Price | What It Means                  |
| ----- | ------------------------------ |
| 23%   | Unlikely, but possible         |
| 47%   | Slightly less than a coin flip |
| 61%   | More likely than not           |
| 84%   | Highly probable                |

***

## Price Movement Is the Signal

Probability prices move as new information arrives and traders reassess.

<AccordionGroup>
  <Accordion title="Price rising: 55% → 68%" icon="arrow-up">
    The market is becoming more confident this outcome will happen. Traders are buying YES, pushing the price up. New information may have increased the perceived likelihood.
  </Accordion>

  <Accordion title="Price falling: 72% → 58%" icon="arrow-down">
    The market is becoming less confident. Traders are selling YES or buying NO. Something changed the collective expectation.
  </Accordion>

  <Accordion title="Price stable: 64% → 65% → 63%" icon="arrows-left-right">
    No major new information. The market has reached temporary consensus around this probability.
  </Accordion>
</AccordionGroup>

Your PnL comes from these movements. If you go LONG at 55% and the price rises to 68%, you'd be in profit. If it drops to 45%, you'd have unrealized losses. The final event resolution matters for settlement, but you can trade in and out based on probability movement alone.

***

## Where Do These Probabilities Come From?

Ascend does not invent probabilities. Prices are anchored to external sources.

<Steps>
  <Step title="External prediction markets">
    Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi already price thousands of outcomes. Ascend references these prices as a baseline.
  </Step>

  <Step title="Oracle feeds">
    For asset-linked markets (crypto, equities, commodities), specialized oracles provide probability data based on directional sentiment.
  </Step>

  <Step title="Aggregation">
    Multiple sources are combined using weighted averages. No single source dominates. Stale or invalid data is excluded automatically.
  </Step>
</Steps>

This oracle-sourced design keeps Ascend prices grounded in real market information while allowing leveraged trading on top.

***

## Why Percentages?

Percentages work because they are universal.

<Check>A 70% probability means the same thing whether you are trading an election, a Fed decision, or a crypto price target</Check>
<Check>No need to understand contract mechanics or notional values</Check>
<Check>Directional trading is intuitive: higher percentage means more likely, lower means less likely</Check>

This abstraction lets you focus on one question: **Where do I think this probability is going?**

***

## Single vs Multi-Outcome Markets

Some markets have one outcome. Others have several.

<Tabs>
  <Tab title="Single Outcome">
    **Example:** Will BTC hit \$100k by December 31st?

    One probability. One YES/NO. The price reflects the likelihood of YES.

    Price at 72% means the market thinks it is likely. You go LONG if you think it will rise toward 100%. You go SHORT if you think it will fall toward 0%.
  </Tab>

  <Tab title="Multi-Outcome">
    **Example:** Who will win the 2028 presidential election?

    Multiple candidates. Each has a separate probability.

    | Candidate      | Probability |
    | -------------- | ----------- |
    | Candidate A    | 38%         |
    | Candidate B    | 31%         |
    | Candidate C    | 22%         |
    | Field (others) | 9%          |

    The probabilities roughly sum to 100%. You can go LONG or SHORT on any individual candidate. If you think Candidate B is undervalued, you go LONG on B. If you think A is overvalued, you go SHORT on A.
  </Tab>
</Tabs>

***

## What Happens at Resolution?

When an event resolves, the probability snaps to its final value.

The winning outcome settles at **100%**. All other outcomes settle at **0%**.

If you are LONG on the winning outcome, your position settles at maximum value. If you are LONG on a losing outcome, it settles at zero.

But remember: you do not have to hold until resolution. You can exit anytime based on probability movement.

<Note>
  Resolution follows predefined rules announced at market creation. There is no discretionary judgment. The same inputs always produce the same settlement.
</Note>

***

<Card title="Next: Directional Outcome Trading" icon="arrow-right" href="/core-concepts/directional-outcome-trading">
  Learn how to go LONG and SHORT on probabilities
</Card>